Climate Change
In 2009, Herald Welze made a profound prediction in his seminal work on the climate wars. He foresaw that the dominant conflicts of the 21st century would be global conflicts of class, belief, and resources. His book also underscored the absence of effective transnational actors and an inter-state monopoly on violence to regulate these conflicts. Now, fifteen years later, in 2024, it is crucial to reflect on the evolution of these predictions, particularly regarding conflicts of beliefs and resources, in the context of the climate events and wars that have unfolded since.
Conflicts of belief have indeed grown considerably since 2009. The rise of populism, religious extremism and nationalist movements has exacerbated ideological tensions on a global scale. Social media and disinformation have played a crucial role in amplifying these differences. Events such as Brexit, the election of populist leaders in several countries, and the increasing polarization of societies demonstrate that these belief conflicts are intensifying.
At the same time, conflicts over resources have intensified and are closely linked to climate challenges. The scarcity of fresh water, the reduction of arable land, and the race for energy resources have generated growing geopolitical tensions. Extreme climatic events, which have become more frequent and intense, have exacerbated these conflicts by causing population displacements and straining infrastructure and national economies.
The climate crisis has also given rise to new types of conflicts. “Climate refugees” have become a reality, creating tensions between origin and host countries. Disagreements over responsibility and financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures have widened the divide between developed and developing countries.
However, contrary to Welze's predictions, progress has yet to be made in regulating these conflicts. International organisations like the UN have strengthened their role in mediating climate and resource conflicts. International agreements like the Paris Agreement have provided a framework for global cooperation on climate issues, although their effectiveness remains questionable.
On a more hopeful note, new transnational actors have stepped onto the stage. Environmental NGOs, youth climate movements, and business coalitions committed to sustainability have grown in influence and played a pivotal role in raising awareness and mobilizing for climate action. Their emergence is a testament to the power of collective action and the potential for change in the face of global conflicts and climate challenges.
Nevertheless, Welze's prediction regarding the absence of an effective interstate monopoly on violence remains valid. Regional conflicts persist, often fueled by resource-related issues and exacerbated by the impacts of climate change.
Herald Welze's predictions have largely materialized, significantly intensifying conflicts of beliefs and resources closely linked to climate challenges. However, the emergence of new transnational actors and strengthening international cooperation efforts offer a glimmer of hope. The future will depend on our collective capacity to bolster these cooperation mechanisms and effectively address the climate and resource challenges that fuel these global conflicts. It is in our hands to shape a more peaceful and sustainable world.
Harald Welzer, Climate Wars: What People Will be Killed for in the 21st Century, Polity, 2012
