As the devastating war in Ukraine grinds on, the international community is increasingly seeking innovative strategies to break the deadlock and bring the conflict to a close. While much of the focus has been on direct military support for Ukraine or sanctions against Russia, a critical, albeit often overlooked, aspect of this conflict is the role of Belarus. Under the leadership of Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus has emerged as a crucial ally of Russia, providing strategic support that has significantly influenced the dynamics of the war. Given this, the West must consider a nuanced "carrot and stick" strategy to influence Belarus, potentially altering the course of the conflict in favour of Ukraine.
Belarus: A Key Player in the Ukraine Conflict
Belarus's geographical proximity to Ukraine makes it an indispensable actor in the ongoing conflict. The country shares a 1,084-kilometer border with Ukraine, which has been instrumental in Russian military operations. From the outset of the invasion, Belarus has allowed Russian troops to use its territory as a staging ground, effectively
facilitating Moscow's military logistics. This cooperation has enabled Russia to maintain a formidable presence on Ukraine's northern front and forced Ukraine to divert valuable resources to defend its border with Belarus, weakening its focus on the more critical eastern and southern fronts.
Lukashenko's unwavering support for Putin has deepened the geopolitical entanglement between the two countries, a historically complex relationship. Since coming to power in 1994, Lukashenko has skillfully played both Russia and the West against each other to maintain his grip on power. However, his recent alignment with Russia's war in Ukraine has tipped the scales, making Belarus a critical focus for Western diplomacy.
Historical Context: Belarus's Strategic Calculus
Understanding Belarus's current role requires a brief examination of its historical relationship with Russia and the West. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Belarus remained closely aligned with Russia, partly due to economic dependencies and partly due to Lukashenko's desire to maintain authoritarian control. Unlike other former Soviet republics that sought to integrate with Western institutions, Belarus clung to its Soviet-era structures, resisting political and economic reforms.
Over the years, Lukashenko has used his relationship with Russia to counter Western pressure, securing economic aid and energy subsidies from Moscow in exchange for political loyalty. However, his relationship with Russia has not been without friction. Lukashenko has sometimes flirted with the idea of rapprochement with the West, especially when his relationship with Putin has soured, such as during disputes over energy prices or when Russia has pushed for deeper integration under the Union State treaty.
This delicate balancing act has been increasingly difficult to maintain, especially after the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, which is widely regarded as fraudulent and has sparked massive protests and international condemnation. The brutal crackdown that followed further isolated Lukashenko from the West, leaving him with little choice but to double down on his alliance with Russia. The Ukraine war has only deepened this dependence, with Lukashenko becoming a more willing partner in Putin's regional ambitions.
The "Carrot and Stick" Strategy: A Dual Approach
Given Belarus's complexities, the West's approach to influencing Lukashenko must be equally nuanced. A "carrot and stick" strategy—offering incentives for cooperation while applying pressure for non-compliance—presents a viable pathway for persuading Belarus to distance itself from Russia and potentially tilt the balance of power in the Ukraine conflict.
The Carrot: Economic and Political Incentives
One of the most significant levers the West can use is economic incentives. Belarus relies heavily on Russia for energy supplies, trade, and financial aid, making it vulnerable to economic pressure. However, this dependence also presents an opportunity for the West to offer an alternative. By extending economic aid, investment, and trade agreements, the EU and the US can create a more appealing economic future for Belarus, one less reliant on Russian patronage.
For example, the European Union could offer Belarus access to its single market, which would significantly boost the country's economy by providing access to one of the world's largest trading blocs. Similarly, targeted investments in key sectors, such as infrastructure, technology, and agriculture, could help modernize Belarus's economy and reduce its dependency on Russian energy and financial support.
Additionally, political incentives could play a crucial role. While Belarus under Lukashenko is far from democratic, offering a roadmap for political normalisation and integration with Western institutions could appeal to segments of the Belarusian elite who are wary of overreliance on Russia. Such overtures include initiating EU accession talks, offering observer status in regional organizations, or providing platforms for dialogue on governance and human rights reforms.
The Stick: Diplomatic and Economic Pressure
In parallel with these incentives, the West must also be prepared to apply significant pressure if Belarus continues to support Russia's war in Ukraine. Targeted sanctions, particularly against key figures in Lukashenko's regime, could be a powerful tool. Sanctions that target the Belarusian economy, especially in sectors like energy, finance, and manufacturing, could exacerbate the country's economic vulnerabilities and force Lukashenko to reconsider his alignment with Moscow.
Diplomatic isolation is another potent tool. By reducing Belarus's ability to engage with the international community, the West can increase the costs of Lukashenko's continued support for Russia. This could involve suspending Belarus from international organisations, restricting its participation in multilateral forums, and imposing travel bans on senior officials. Such measures would signal to Lukashenko that his continued support for Russia comes with significant international costs.
Moreover, military support to Ukraine could be ramped up in response to Belarus's actions. By increasing the flow of advanced weaponry and intelligence to Ukraine, the West can help Ukraine maintain its defence and potentially deter any further Belarusian involvement in the conflict. This would send a clear message to Lukashenko that the West is prepared to counteract any military support he provides to Russia.
The Challenge of Balancing Carrots and Sticks
While the "carrot and stick" strategy offers a viable path forward, it is not without its challenges. The key to success lies in the careful calibration of incentives and pressures. Too many "carrots" without sufficient "sticks" could embolden Lukashenko, allowing him to extract concessions without making meaningful changes in his alignment with Russia. Conversely, an overemphasis on "sticks" could push Belarus further into Russia's orbit, solidifying the very alliance the West seeks to disrupt.
This delicate balancing act requires a deep understanding of Belarus's internal dynamics and the broader geopolitical context. For instance, while economic incentives could sway Lukashenko, they might not be sufficient to overcome his fears of losing power or his long-standing ties with Moscow. Similarly, while sanctions and diplomatic isolation could impose significant costs, they might also harden Lukashenko's resolve to resist Western pressure.
To navigate these challenges, the West must adopt a flexible and responsive approach that can adjust to the evolving situation. This could involve incremental increases in incentives and pressures, allowing Lukashenko to see the benefits of cooperation while gradually raising non-compliance costs. Additionally, the West must be prepared to engage in high-level diplomacy, using backchannels and intermediaries to explore potential avenues for dialogue and negotiation.
The Role of International Cooperation
A successful "carrot and stick" strategy also requires strong international coordination. The US, EU, and NATO must work together to present a united front, avoiding mixed signals that could undermine their efforts. This involves aligning their policies toward Belarus and coordinating their broader strategies towards Russia and Ukraine.
Germany, as one of the EU's leading powers, has a critical role to play in this effort. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has emphasized the importance of international cooperation in isolating Russia and supporting Ukraine. By working closely with its European and transatlantic partners, Germany can help to ensure that the West's approach to Belarus is both coherent and effective.
The Human Rights Dimension
Another critical aspect of the West's strategy should be promoting human rights and democratic reforms in Belarus. The 2020 protests in Belarus revealed the deep-seated frustration of the Belarusian people with Lukashenko's authoritarian rule. By supporting civil society, independent media, and democratic opposition in Belarus, the West can help to build an alternative to Lukashenko's regime, one that is more aligned with Western values and less dependent on Russia.
This support could include providing financial assistance to NGOs, offering scholarships and exchange programs to Belarusian students and professionals, and facilitating the work of international human rights organizations in the country. By investing in the long-term development of a democratic and pluralistic society in Belarus, the West can create the conditions for a more sustainable and positive relationship with the country in the future.
Belarus as a Pivotal Factor in the Ukraine War
As the war in Ukraine continues, Belarus's pivotal role in the conflict cannot be overstated. By employing a well-calibrated "carrot and stick" strategy, the West can influence Belarus's alignment, potentially creating a critical wedge between Moscow and Minsk. This approach requires patience, persistence, and a deep understanding of the complex geopolitics at play. However, if successful, it could significantly alter the war's course, allowing Ukraine to redeploy its forces and focus on the main front against Russia.
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| Belarus, Ukraine, Russia, EU |
As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his people continue their courageous fight for their country's sovereignty, the strategic landscape of Eastern Europe remains in flux. The West's ability to shape this landscape will depend in part on how effectively it can influence Belarus, a country whose actions could either prolong the conflict or help bring it to an end.
Lukashenko’s regime stands at a crossroads. The choice between further integration with Russia or a potential pivot towards the West carries profound implications not only for Belarus but also for the broader regional order. By carefully balancing the "carrot and stick" approach, the West might nudge Belarus away from the brink of deeper entanglement in the war and towards a more neutral or even cooperative stance.
Ultimately, the success of this strategy hinges on the West’s ability to present a united front, offer credible alternatives to Russian influence, and remain committed to supporting democratic forces within Belarus. Should the West manage to sway Belarus, the ripple effects could weaken Russia’s position in Ukraine, relieve pressure on Ukrainian forces, and perhaps pave the way for a more favourable resolution to the conflict.
In summary, while the direct impact of influencing Belarus might seem limited compared to the broader military and economic measures being deployed, it represents a crucial piece in the complex puzzle of the Ukraine war. By strategically leveraging both incentives and pressures, the West can potentially create conditions that not only undermine Russia’s war efforts but also set the stage for a post-war Europe where Belarus plays a constructive, rather than destructive, role.
